The diaphragm would be my guess. My second would be a crack in the the siphon that is letting air suck in; enough to reduce the flow and change the sound but not enough to completely stop it working.Up until a few days ago it worked perfectly, then the flush just started being really weak. Doesn't flush toilet paper at all.
Water comes out & the cistern empties, but the water comes out so weak that nothing flushes away.
The water makes a slightly different sound now when it comes out of the cistern into the bowl - I can hear a hollow sound now coming from the cistern, as if there's not enough water or too much air somewhere & it's kind of struggling.
Did you fit a 'dual flush' replacement siphon (I can't be sure from the picture) ? If so, check that the tank is fully emptying when you flush. If it stops halfway you may be operating it incorrectly or it may be faulty.
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